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El rally de santa Claus es un termino que se acuño por primera vez en 1970 por un analista llamado Yale Hirsch, quien notó la tendencia al alza de los mercados bursátiles durante el periodo de entre una semana antes del 24 de diciembre hasta los siguientes 2 días hábiles den enero.
Este acontecimiento ha generado discordia entre los analistas, ya que algunos creen que esto es simplemente un mito, lo cierto es que estas últimas semanas tienden a tener movimientos alcistas de cara al día de navidad y fin de año.
Teniendo en cuento esto es importante que no se tome como una estrategia de generar dinero fácil, sino se debe acompañar de más datos macroeconómicos y datos geopolíticos.
¿Pero es real el rally de Santa Claus?
El Rally de Navidad es real, pero no siempre es confiable. Si bien el fenómeno ocurre regularmente, no tiene una causa definida, lo que hace que sea difícil de predecir. La historia nosmuestra lo que ha sucedió estadísticamente, pero no significa que siempre vaya a suceder.
Estadísticas históricas
En general, no podemos discernir un período de recuperación viable que se produzca de forma regular o fiable en torno a las vacaciones de fin de año. El gráfico siguiente muestra los rendimientos semanales del período de recuperación de Papá Noel durante los últimos 20 años:
El siguiente gráfico muestra el cambio en el índice bursátil de referencia S&P 500 durante las últimas cinco sesiones del año y las dos primeras sesiones de enero en las últimas doce navidades desde 2022
La imagen de arriba recoge el desempeño del S&P500 durante las últimas cinco sesiones del año y las dos primeras del siguiente en las últimas doce navidades. Cuando analizamos las estadísticas del rally de Navidad, se ve claramente que la tendencia general durante este periodo es al alza.
Posibles causas de rally de santa Claus
Todos los inversores institucionales tienden a relajarse y evitar operar durante este período. Como resultado, los inversores minoristas aprovechan esta oportunidad para crear un patrón alcista. Además, hay relativamente menos volumen para crear una tendencia alcista.
Los inversores intentan comprar acciones como preparación para el efecto enero . Normalmente, los operadores que sufren este efecto suponen que los precios subirán más que el resto del año. Por ello, tienden a acumular acciones para venderlas a un precio más alto en Año Nuevo.
A medida que los comerciantes adoptan la estrategia de recolección de pérdidas fiscales, los precios caen a principios de diciembre. Venden las inversiones que generan pérdidas para obtener beneficios fiscales . Por lo tanto, una vez que pasa la fecha límite (31 de diciembre), los inversores recuperarán la confianza e invertirán.
Se creó una sensación de positividad y optimismo dentro del mercado para un gráfico en ascenso.
